Economist
Oliver’s Insights – The impact of the US/Iran war on economies and markets – Q and A
11 March
Key points Uncertainty around the duration of the US/Israel war with Iran has intensified with oil prices spiking to $US119/barrel only to then plunge as President Trump hinted that the war may be close to over. This is in turn driving big...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Gulf War 3 – the threat to economies and markets from the US/Iran war
5 March
Key Points The start of a war between the US and Israel and Iran poses the risk of a significant disruption to global economic growth given the likelihood of significant disruption to the supply of oil, particularly through the Strait of...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The outlook for Australian shares – is the long underperformance versus global shares over?
25 February
Key points Over the long-term Australian shares have been a relatively strong performer, but it does go through relatively long periods of out and underperformance versus global shares. We see more upside in Australian shares supported by the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Nine key charts for investors to keep an eye on
18 February
Key points This year has started off rather messy with geopolitical threats and worries around AI disruption and valuations. We are mildly upbeat on shares for the year but see a 15% or so correction as likely along the way. Nine key charts worth...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Inflation, rate hikes and public spending – Q&A
11 February
Key points Keeping inflation low and around target is important in terms of maximising living standards in Australia. We are optimistic that much of the recent rise in inflation will prove temporary. But some may reflect the economy hitting...[Read More]
Compound interest and returns are an investor’s best friend
27 August
If there is “one thing” investors should know about investing, it’s the power of compound interest or returns. In the ever-rising obsession with short-term developments impacting investment markets around the economy, interest rates, profits,...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Compound interest and returns are an investor’s best friend
20 August
Key points Compound interest is an investor’s best friend but can be a borrower’s worst nightmare. The higher the return, the earlier and bigger the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works. To make the most of it,...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts for the third time – expect a further gradual easing to 2.85%
13 August
Key points The RBA cut its cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 3.6%. This is the third rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA sees inflation running around target but has revised its growth forecasts down again. Its forecasts assume that the cash...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Poor Australian productivity – why all the fuss? And what to do about it?
30 July
Key points The last decade has seen productivity stagnate in Australia. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. Policies to boost productivity include: deregulation; more housing supply; a cap on public spending; and tax...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Seven key charts on the state of the Australian property market
23 July
Key points The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than many portray it to be. The Australian housing is cycle is turning up again; falling interest rates are the key driver; along with a chronic undersupply of homes of...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – China – the tariff threat, structural challenges & implications for Australia
23 July
Key points Chinese growth is running around 5% and while threatsremain high – with the property downturn and tariffs – policy stimulus is likely to be enough to keep growth okay. However, longer term structural challenges – around...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
16 July
Key points The first half of this year saw good returns, but they were interrupted by a correction into April thanks to US tariffs. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the next few months. Seven key...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights 2024-25 saw strong investment returns yet again – but is it sustainable?
9 July
Key points While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Five charts on investing to keep in mind in uncertain times like now
25 June
Key points The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets. But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focused on...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Here we go again! – the threat to economies and investment markets from the Israel and Iran war
19 June
Key points So far, the Israel/Iran war is limited, and various constraints suggest it may stay that way with Iran reportedly wanting to return to talks. It’s still early days though and so the risk of an escalation threatening oil supplies...[Read More]