Oliver’s insights – investment outlook Q&A

14 February

Recession risks, rates and inflation, valuations, geopolitics, the US election and Swiftonomics   Key points – Rate hikes have worked in helping slow inflation and rate cuts are likely this year. Expect a bumpy ride though. – The risk of...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 05/02/24

7 February

Key points – The Australian Government’s changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts have refocussed attention on the need for tax reform. – The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?

17 January

Key points –  Inflation is in retreat thanks to improved supply and cooling demand. A further fall is likely this year. –  Australian inflation remains relatively high – but this mainly reflects lags rather than a more inflation prone...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?

10 January

Key points – 2023 turned out to be a strong year for investors with shares and bonds rallying on the back of falling inflation, the anticipation of interest rate cuts in 2024 and better than feared economic growth. There were bumps along the way,...[Read More]

End of year wrap 2023 – What we learnt and where to next

20 December

In this webinar, join AMP’s Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, and Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist, as they reflect on 2023 and answer the most asked questions impacting the year ahead. CLICK HERE to view the...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 2023 saw the return of Goldilocks, but what’s in store for 2024 for investors?

13 December

Key points –  The five key themes for 2023 were: better than feared growth; disinflation; peak interest rates (probably in Australia too); lots of geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared; and AI hit the big time. This boosted shares and...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The RBA leaves rates on hold – have we finally reached the top?

7 December

Key points – At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary. – Our concern remains that the RBA has tightened more than necessary with a high risk of recession next...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Five reasons to expect the $A to rise – providing recession is avoided

29 November

Key points – Since its February 2021 high of nearly $US0.80 the $A has fallen on the back of worries about the global growth outlook, worries about China, the strong $US and relatively less aggressive monetary tightening by the RBA. – However,...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – nine key things for successful investing

22 November

Key points – Successful investing is not always easy and can be stressful. Even in good times. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things in mind. – The nine key things are: make the most of compound interest;...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates

1 November

Key points – Australian home prices rose again in October, with the supply shortfall on the back of record immigration dominating. Prices are now on track for a 9% gain this year. – While the supply shortfall is likely to continue there is a...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Five constraints on medium term investment returns

25 October

Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions;...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel

18 October

Key points – The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term. – If Iran stays out of the conflict & a major supply disruption is avoided the impact on shares should ultimately be...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights 1987 vs now – rising bond yields (& war in Israel) and the risks for shares

11 October

Key points – The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness. – The conflict in Israel has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – For what it’s worth: why what you pay for an investment is a key driver of its return…and how do valuations look now?

27 September

Key points – Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings ratios – are key drivers of medium-term investment returns. – For growth assets it’s often more complicated, with the level of interest rates playing a big...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – immigration and housing affordability Why immigration should be lower

20 September

Key points – The key drivers of expensive housing in Australia have been low interest rates and a chronic housing supply shortfall. – Thankfully Australian governments are now focussing on boosting supply, but this will face various constraints...[Read More]